Market Notes
系列：Fund Strategy

Bond funds in a bull market

Bond funds in a bull: steady long-term rise, can buy in one shot NAV keeps climbing Quality bond funds are positive ~75% of the time and rarely pull back in a bull — a gentle slope but a clear upward direction.
Figure: Bond funds (especially quality bond funds) rise steadily long-term; in a bull they rarely correct, so the tactic can be more "aggressive" — a one-shot buy.

How to invest in bond funds during a bull market?

Why one-shot buying in a bull market

For bond funds in a bull market we take a one-shot buy — why?

  1. Bond funds basically keep rising through a bull market; quality bond funds are themselves long-term risers;
  2. Quality bond funds are positive ~75% of the time, and in a bull market a pullback is unlikely.

So we can be a bit more aggressive — we only need its performance to be below the historical average, and we buy in one shot.

Because in a bull market funds usually outperform, what we earn is the income from returning to normal returns through to the excess-return stage.

One-shot buy: act when current return is below the historical monthly average Historical average monthly return line Buy (current < monthly avg) ✓ Bond bull basically keeps rising, rare pullback　✓ current return < historical monthly avg → one-shot buy What you earn is the stretch "from returning to normal returns to excess returns" — no need to wait for a deep drop.
Figure: A bond fund in a bull mostly sits above its historical monthly-average return line; when it dips below (current return under the historical average), buy in one shot.

Specific buy conditions

① First tally the bond fund’s historical average monthly return, historical max monthly return, and historical average annualised return; ② When current return is below the historical average monthly return, we can buy in one shot.

Specific sell conditions

Staged sell: three tranches as targets hit, clear at the top Historical average annualised return (max + avg)/2 Historical max annualised × 90% sell 1/3 sell 1/3 clear ✓ YTD > avg annualised → sell 1/3　✓ >(max+avg)/2 → sell 1/3　✓ >max×90% → clear Respect history and patterns, give up luck: take profit in tranches as it rises, don't bet on a new all-time high.
Figure: Bond bull sells in three tranches — sell 1/3 when YTD return passes the average annualised, another 1/3 at the (max+avg) midpoint, and clear when it reaches 90% of the historical max annualised.

① When year-to-date return > historical average annualised return, sell 1/3; ② When year-to-date return > the midpoint between the historical max and average annualised return, sell 1/3; ③ When year-to-date return > 90% of the historical maximum return, clear the position.

The reason for clearing is, as always, to respect history and patterns, and give up fantasy and luck.

⚠️ This article is a methodological framework for illustration only and does not constitute any investment or trading advice. Markets carry risk; decisions require caution.

觉得有用？欢迎点赞、收藏，或请我喝杯咖啡 ☕

支付宝收款码

支付宝

微信收款码

微信

📚 本系列：Fund Strategy（共 26 篇）

💬 留言

评论由 Giscus 驱动（基于 GitHub Discussions）。 当前仓库 NaphJohn/stock-blog 尚未启用 Discussions 或未安装 Giscus App：请在 GitHub 仓库 Settings → General → Features 勾选 Discussions，并到 github.com/apps/giscus 安装本仓库后刷新，评论区即自动显示。